The Parallel Lives of Vladimir Putin and Hwang Kyo-ahn

Ban Ki-moon Dropping out of the Race Throws Spotlight on the Parallel Lives of Vladimir Putin and Hwang Kyo-ahn

Han Seung-bum, CEO of Maccine Korea

On Dec. 30, 2011, a year before the 18th presidential election in the Republic of Korea, I predicted in my contribution to several media outlets that Park Geun-hye would be elected president. And in May 2016, six months to the US presidential election, I also predicted that Donald J. Trump would be elected. I'm not a fortune-teller. And it was because I focused more on the essence than on the phenomenon of the elections that I precisely predicted the outcomes of the presidential elections in the US and South Korea. Currently, Ascendency of Moon Jae-in is pretty much taken for granted in South Korea. On Feb. 1, former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced that he was dropping his presidential bid. Then, what will happen to the 2017 election?

At midnight of Dec. 31, 1999, Russian President Boris Yeltsin began his New Year's greeting on the Russian television. Defying the general prediction that it would be a message as usual, he made this surprising announcement that he would like to resign because of his deteriorating health. The whole of Russia was instantly gripped by silence. Not just Russia, but the entire world was thrown in shock and awe. Since 1991 when I began my education in the Soviet Union, it was the second most shocking incident.

The most shocking one was the dismantling of the Soviet Union at the hands of Boris Yeltsin, later the Russian President, who browbeat President Mikhail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union. It was a historic moment when the free Russian Federation was born and the 70-year-old suzerain state of Communism. Even though he was a hero who implanted democracy and capitalism in Russia, President Yeltsin ended up the butt of the Russian people's jokes for his alcoholism and fecklessness.

In 1999, Russia was backtracking in practically all areas including diplomacy, politics, economy, and culture, and the ruling party had nearly zero chances of staying in power. Russian people were upset that their country was terribly poor, feckless, and powerless, and so were cynically yearning after 'the good ol' days of the Soviet Union'.

In August 1999, the ne'er-do-well President Yeltsin's rating was 6.5%, and 87.2% of the poll respondents said they did not trust him. Of all the major politicians, he was in the worst shape. It was logical that he appeared to have a fat chance of winning the election for his government. What made it worse, the scandalous money laundering through a New York bank followed by the huge flap over the bribery involving Yeltsin's family 'couldn't make thing bleaker for him'.

President Yeltsin's 'surprise resignation' turned out to be a clever move. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, now serving as acting president, saw his approval rating soaring. Hailing from KGB, Acting President Putin showed off stable state administration and the strong image of a macho and grabbed an easy win in the presidential election held three months after Yeltsin's resignation, defeating Gennady Zyuganov, the second ranked leader of the Communist Party, with an overwhelming 53% of the votes. That marked the birth of 'the New Czar of Russia'.

Now, let's look at Korea

On Dec. 9, 2016, the National Assembly passed the bill for impeaching President Park Geun-hye. That was a month and half past Oct. 24, when the so-called 'Choi Soon-sil Gate' blew up in the people's face. Korea was overcome with shock and dismay. And the local press was carpet-bombing President Park, Choi Soon-sil, and Jeong Yu-ra day after day. One groundwave channel was filling minimum 90% of its 8 o'clock news with stories about 'Choi Gate'.

After her inauguration, President Park Geun-hye created achievements that could be remembered in history. Disbanding of Unified Progressive Party and the arrest of former member of the National Assembly Lee Seok-ki as well as her hard-line stance toward North Korea featured in the shutdown of Kaesong Industrial Complex were indispensable for the security of the Republic of Korea and peaceful national reunification. All her achievements have been eclipsed, however, by the outmoded 'Choi Gate' which evokes the eunuch politics from the Joseon period. What's going on is that one rotten apple called 'Choi Soon-sil' spoils the barrel. Thus, President Park Geun-hye registers a public approval of 5%, lower than 6%, previously the lowest rating registered by Korean presidents.

With the impeachment trial in progress, one person's ratings are soaring quietly. It's Acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn. Acting President Hwang was born practically without any spoon, let alone a silver spoon in his mouth. In a nutshell, he is a potential candidate who can weave a beautiful story. As a former public order prosecutor, he demonstrates a solid view of national security and is such a devout Christian that he is called 'a preacher'. And his rating, begun at 1%, is now coming up to 10%. That is the rating registered by former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon as a potential presidential candidate before Feb. 1 when he dropped his presidential bid. The on-going President Park's impeachment trial is quite likely to serve as a neat trick for Acting President Hwang

President Putin and Acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn show many similarities in their impression and personality. First of all, they both register strong manliness. They are sharply contrasted with their respective predecessors, President Yeltsin and President Park Geun-hye. Just like President Putin who has built 'a strong Russia', Acting President Hwang is demonstrating a strong drive in state administration. Thus, people's attention is now drawn to how the parallel lives of President Putin of Russia and Acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn of Korea will be reflected in the 2017 presidential election in South Korea.