Trump’s Win and NK leader’s Fate

Han Seung-bum, CEO of MACCINE Korea

The countdown to the United States’ Presidential Election results has begun. South Koreans are not so interested as to ‘who will be the next President’ as they are to ‘how will it affect the Korean Peninsula.’ The Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton’s foreign policies, including policies toward the Korean peninsula, are already well known, and being little different from those of her predecessor President Obama, do not call for much scrutiny. On the other hand, the Republican candidate Donald Trump’s line of foreign policy is markedly different from those of other Republicans, or any other politicians for that matter, and is worth a thorough analysis. .

The Republican candidate’s campaign has met with a barrage of criticisms from the United States media. The South Korean media also depict him as a distasteful candidate, as they often quote from major American media. Negative reports on the candidate, involving sexual harassments and other scandals, as well as his uncontrolled remarks, veil his true colors. In particular, his South Korean policies include sensitive issues such as a possible pullout of the US troops in Korea and a re-assessment of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, resulting in an almost unanimous disapproval from South Korea. According to a poll conducted last month by South China Morning Post(SCMP), only 7% of South Korean respondents support Donald Trump. In addition, 63% of South Koreans have a “very hostile” perception of the Republican candidate. This comes as no surprise.

However, regardless of whether the United States’ Republican candidate is likable or not, South Korea should maintain an objective perspective toward the possibility of a White House with Donald Trump as the President and seriously assess its potential policies and visions regarding the Korean Peninsula. A book providing an insight into Trump’s stance on foreign affairs and the Korean peninsula has been published last November in the United States, titled ‘Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again,’ and on July 14th its Korean version has also been published by Iremedia Publications. Trump’s standpoint on the Korean peninsula can be inferred from this book, which describes Trump’s foreign policies, and in particular his policy toward Iran.

The key phrase of Trump’s foreign policies is to “Make America Great Again.” For a greater America, national interests take absolute priority over the cause. A case in point is his declaration to keep out illegal immigrants by building a high wall on the US-Mexico border. He purports that the United States should stop giving out Citizenships to all children born on American soil on the word of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, expressing his strong determination to ban all illegal immigrants who presumably degrade American values and exhaust welfare budgets. This may come as an unfortunate news to those Koreans who go on the so-called “maternity trips” to the United States.

Likewise, Trump’s foreign policies are also strictly ‘national interest first.’ For those countries with conflicting interests with the United States, he will be hard-nosed to the point of ruthlessness. For instance, regarding the Islamic State(IS), which is becoming a serious threat to American security, he will go as far as to send ground forces to obliterate it. In this regard, South Korea needs to pay a close attention to the nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran. Trump has expressed his repulsion toward this negotiation, calling it “the worst negotiation ever.” He insists that Iran is an untrustworthy country and that the United States should have pushed harder and completely stripped Iran of its nuclear powers.

North Korea’s nuclear experiments and test missile launches have now become a menace not only for the Korean peninsula but also for the United States mainland as well. If Donald Trump wins the election, he will insist on a fundamental and ultimate disarmament of North Korea. To this end, a Trump administration will take coercion and sanctions toward North Korea to a completely different level. In a nutshell, Trump will see to it that North Korea and its Chairman Kim Jong-Un hit rock bottom. When coercion and sanctions do not work, he will not rule out the assassination of the Chairman or other military actions such as demolishment of nuclear facilities. This will be a clear change from Washington’s lukewarm attitude toward North Korea up to now.

The day North Korea’s armament becomes of any substantial threat to the United States will become the end of Chairman Kim’s days. For Donald Trump, the security of South Korea or safety of the Korean people is evidently low on his list. We will never witness another scene like that in 1994, when Bill Clinton’s Administration’s plan to bombard North Korea’s Yeongbyun nuclear facilities was dissuaded by then South Korean President Kim Yong-Sam. Trump states that “the United States will use power if necessary, and the world will treat the US differently once they know we mean it.” This should send a chill down Kim Jong-Un’s back.

Trump’s stance on war is to “if you want peace, prepare for war.” He intends to create the most powerful army in history, in order to possess ‘an army so overpowering that no occasion will rise to use it in the first place.’ A Trump Administration will bring uncharted confusion and unprecedented uncertainty on the Korean peninsula. South Korea’s top presidential candidates, practically begging Chairman Kim in the North for peace, should take to heart Trump’s pronouncement that “if you want peace, prepare for war.”

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