세계경제 정책방향 일대전환 조짐
금리인하 대신 재정확장 쪽으로

G20 재무장관 중앙은행총재 연석회의 공동 커뮤니케 분석과 진단

전 세계 각국의 경제정책 기조가 기존의 통화정책에서 재정정책 쪽으로 일대 변화하는 조짐을 보이고 있다. 통화량을 늘리고 금리를 내리는 통화정책보다는 정부 재정에서 돈을 대대적으로 푸는 방향으로 정책의 방향이 전환하고 있는 것이다.
지난 주말 미국의 워싱턴DC에서는 전세계 주요 20국의 모임인 이른바 G20의 재무장관 및 중앙은행 연석회의가 열렸다. G20은 지구촌에서 가장 영향력이 높은 선진국과 중진국들이 세계경제 현안을 공동으로 논의하고 대책을 세우는 국제조직이다. 전 세계 각국이 앞으로 펴나갈 정책의 기본 방향이 이 G20에서 결정된다고 해도 과언이 아니다.

이 G20의 뿌리는 G5로 거슬러 올라간다. 미국 닉슨 대통령이 1971년 금 태환을 포기하면서 촉발된 브레튼우즈 체제의 붕괴와 그로인한 세계 금융질서의 붕괴를 수습하기 위해 미국, 영국, 독일, 프랑스, 일본 등 선진 5개국은 1974년 주기적으로 재무장관과 중앙은행 총재 회의를 열어왔다. 일본 엔화강세를 유도한 그 유명한 1985년의 플라자합의도 G5회의의 작품이다.

G5는 이후 시간이 흐르면서 이탈리아와 캐나다를 추가해 G7으로 확대됐고 재무장관과 중앙은행 총재 뿐 아니라 정상들도 만나 함께 만나 세계경제의 당면 현안을 논의하고 정책 공조를 모색하는 조직으로 발전해갔다.

1997년대 말 한국 등 아시아 지역에 외환위기가 터지자 선진국들만의 모임으로서는 효과적인 글로벌 대책을 세우기 어렵다고 보고 국제통화기금 즉 IMF가 1999년에 기존의 G7에 13개 중진국을 추가한 G20 재무장관 중앙은행 연석회의를 만들었다.

2008년 미국에서 글로벌 금융위기가 터지자 당시 미국 부시대통령의 제안으로 G20재무장관 중앙은행 모임을 G20 정상회의로 까지 승격시켜 오늘에 이르고 있다.G7 회의는 여전히 별도로 운영되고 있지만 G7에 한국 등 중진국까지 합한 G20이 오늘날 지구촌의 경제정책을 조율하는 가장 중요한 무대로 등장해있다.

G20에서 정상회의는 일 년에 한번 재무장관 중앙은행 총재연석회의는 봄 여름 가을 겨울에 한 번씩 열린다. 올 G20의장국은 중국이다. G20 정상회의는 올 9월 중국에서 열린다. 정상회의의 어젠다와 기본방향은 재무장관과 중앙은행 총재 연석회의에서 사실상 결정된다. 그런 면에서 지난 주말 워싱턴에서 열린 G20 재무장관 및 중앙은행총재 연석회의의 결정이 중요한 것이다. 세계경제 동조화 현상으로 각국 경제정책이 지구촌 전체에 큰 영향을 주고 있는 상황인 만큼 G20의 결정을 주목하지 않을 수없다.

G20 재무장관 및 중앙은행 총재들은 주말에 G20 커뮤니케를 발표했다. 모두 12개항으로 구성된 공동발표문이다. 그중에서도 특히 주목되는 대목은 커뮤니케의 제 2장이다.

G20은 여기서 통화정책만으로는 세계경제의 균형성장으로 나아가는 것이 불가능하다고 지적하면서 통화정책이외에 전 세계 각국이 확장적 재정정책을 펴야한다고 강조하고 있다. 그동안의 금리인하와 통화팽창 양적완화 그리고 마이너스금리만으로는 어려운 세계경제를 살려내기 어렵다고 본 것이다. 그린스펀 IMF 총재는 G20 회의 직후 별도의 연설에서 한국 독일 네덜란드 등을 직접거명하면서 재정집행을 확대해야한다고 역설했다.

그동안 전 세계 각국은 경기불황에도 불구하고 제정의 확대 집행을 경계해왔다. 국가부채가 많아 재정집행을 확대하면 부작용이 야기될 수 있다고 보아왔다.

지금의 세계경제 상황이 워낙 엄중해 국가부채 악화의 위험을 감수하고서라도 재정집행을 늘리자는 쪽으로 국제적 공감대가 확산되고 있는 것이다. 특히 한국처럼 재정적자의 비율이 상대적으로 낮은 나라에는 재정 확대집행의 국제적 요구가 거세질 것으로 보인다. 앞으로 재정을 주목할 필요가 있다. 추경 논의도 본격화될 전망이다

정책당국입장에서도 재정확장으로 인한 부작용을 최소화하면서 경기활성화와 경쟁력 향상의 효과를 거둘수 있도록 하는 만반의 준비를 할 필요가 있다.

다음은 G20 재무장관및 중앙은행 총재 커뮤니케 전문.

Communiqu G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

1. The global recovery continues and the financial markets have recovered most of the ground lost earlier in the year since our February meeting in Shanghai. However, growth remains modest and uneven, and downside risks and uncertainties to the global outlook persist against the backdrop of continued financial volatility, challenges faced by commodity exporters and low inflation. Geopolitical conflicts, terrorism, refugee flows, and the shock of a potential UK exit from the European Union also complicate the global economic environment.

2. We welcome policy actions being taken by a number of G20 members to support growth and stabilize markets. We reiterate our commitments to using all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively to foster confidence and strengthen growth. Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates, but monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth. Our fiscal strategies aim to support the economy and we will use fiscal policy flexibly to strengthen growth, job creation and confidence, while enhancing resilience and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. We are also making tax policy and public expenditure more growth-friendly, including by prioritizing high-quality investment. Furthermore, we will continue to explore policy options, tailored to country circumstances, that the G20 countries may undertake as necessary to support growth and respond to potential risks. We reiterate that excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely on exchange markets. We reaffirm our previous exchange rate commitments, including that we will refrain from competitive devaluations and we will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes. We will resist all forms of protectionism. We will carefully calibrate and clearly communicate our macroeconomic and structural policy actions to reduce policy uncertainty, minimize negative spillovers and promote transparency.

3. We have made concrete progress in our enhanced structural reform agenda with support of the OECD, the IMF and other IOs. We have identified and agreed to the priority areas, based on which by July we will further develop and agree upon a set of guiding principles as a reference guide to national reform actions. We will benefit from the priority areas and guiding principles that will be applied in a flexible way to allow members to account for their specific national circumstances. We look forward to proposals for a set of indicators to help monitor and assess our efforts and progress with structural reforms and challenges, taking into account diversity of country circumstances for endorsement at our July meeting. We agreed on the approach to combine our investment strategies with the growth strategies, and remain committed to the effective and timely implementation of our growth strategies. We are reviewing and updating our structural and macroeconomic policies in our growth strategies, including through an enhanced peer review process, to ensure they remain relevant to evolving economic conditions and consistent with the collective growth ambition set by the Brisbane Summit. We will explore further steps to revitalize global trade, lift quality investment and boost innovation as engines for growth. We remain committed to promoting greater inclusiveness and reducing excessive global imbalances.

4. We reaffirm our commitment to advancing the investment agenda with focus on infrastructure, both in terms of quantity and quality. We encourage MDBs to carry out the action plan to optimize their balance sheets as well as take joint actions to formulate quantitative ambition for high quality projects and support infrastructure investment, including catalyzing private sector funding. We look forward to further work on launching the Global Infrastructure Connectivity Alliance to enhance the synergy and cooperation of infrastructure programs, including those at regional level. We will develop a policy guidance note to promote diversified financing instruments for infrastructure and SMEs. We welcome and support the effective implementation of the G20/OECD Corporate Governance and SME Financing Principles as well as the G20 Action Plan on SME Financing as guidance. We welcome the Knowledge Sharing Report submitted by the Global Infrastructure Hub.

5. We are taking actions to continue strengthening the stability and resilience of the international monetary system. We support the work to further strengthen the global financial safety net with the IMF at its center, including through more effective cooperation between the IMF and regional financing arrangements. We also support the work to improve the IMF’s toolkit. We reaffirm our commitment to a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF. We look forward to the completion of the 15th General Review of Quotas, including a new quota formula, by the 2017 Annual Meetings. We reaffirm that any realignment under the 15th review in quota shares is expected to result in increased shares for dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy, and hence likely in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole. We look forward to the outcomes of the World Bank Group’s shareholding review in accordance with the agreed roadmap and timeframe. To facilitate more orderly, timely and predictable sovereign debt restructuring processes, we are working to foster greater dialogue among official creditors and debtors and to promote the incorporation of enhanced contractual clauses into sovereign bonds. We welcome progress made in Argentina’s effort to end a decade-long dispute and regain access to international capital markets. Building on the work of the IMF, BIS, FSB and OECD, we will continue enhancing the monitoring and analysis of capital flows and risks stemming from capital flow volatility. We welcome the IMF’s ongoing work to review country experiences and policies in dealing with capital flows and identify emerging issues. We also note that the OECD is reviewing its Code on Liberalization of Capital Movements. We will discuss the size of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) during the 11th Basic Period of SDR and reporting official reserves in SDR. We support the examination of possible broader use of SDR.

6. We reiterate our commitments to finalizing remaining core elements and support the timely, full and consistent implementation of our agreed financial sector reform agenda, including the Basel III and total loss absorbing capacity (TLAC) standard. We also reiterate our support for the work by the Basel Committee to refine elements of Basel III framework to ensure its coherence and maximize its effectiveness without further significantly increasing overall capital requirements across the banking sector. We will continue to enhance the monitoring of implementation and effects of reforms to ensure their consistency with our overall objectives, including by addressing any material unintended consequences. We look forward to the coordinated work by the IMF, FSB and BIS to take stock of international experiences with macro-prudential frameworks and tools, to help promote effective macro-prudential policies and report back by our next meeting. We welcome the FSB’s work in cooperation with other standard setting bodies to assess holistically the extent, drivers and possible persistence of shifts in market liquidity across jurisdictions and asset classes and consider policy measures if necessary. We look forward to its planned public consultation in mid-2016 on policy recommendations to address structural vulnerabilities associated with asset management activities. We look forward to the FSB peer review report on country-specific implementation of the FSB policy framework for shadow banking entities, and call upon the membership to address identified gaps and on the FSB to evaluate the case for further policy recommendations if appropriate. We reiterate our commitment to expediting implementation of the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures, and to progressing on the work to enhance central counterparty resilience, recovery planning and resolvability, including on cross-border cooperation arrangements such as Crisis Management Groups, and look forward to the report by the FSB in September. We support the work by the FSB, FATF, World Bank Group, OECD and IMF to assess and address, as appropriate, the decline in correspondent banking services including under the FSB-coordinated action plan, and ask for a report on progress to be sent to the Summit. We reaffirm our support for the work of the GPFI on enhancing SME financing, promoting digital financial inclusion and improving data collection and indicators.

7. We reiterate our commitment to timely and widespread implementation of the G20/OECD BEPS package and encourage all relevant and interested countries and jurisdictions to join the new inclusive framework on an equal footing quickly, noting its first meeting will be in June. The G20 strongly reaffirms the importance of effective and widespread implementation of the internationally agreed standards on transparency. Therefore we call on all relevant countries including all financial centers and jurisdictions, which have not committed to implement the standard on automatic exchange of information by 2017 or 2018 to do so without delay and to sign the Multilateral Convention. We expect that by the 2017 G20 Summit all countries and jurisdictions will upgrade their Global Forum rating to a satisfactory level. We mandate the OECD working with G20 countries to establish objective criteria by our July meeting to identify non-cooperative jurisdictions with respect to tax transparency. Defensive measures will be considered by G20 members against non-cooperative jurisdictions if progress as assessed by the Global Forum is not made. We look forward to the Global Forum report on transparency and information exchange for tax purposes before the end of the year. We welcome the collective and continuous efforts by countries and international organizations to build capacity on tax matters for developing economies. We encourage G20 members to consider committing to the principles of the Addis Tax Initiative.

8. The G20 reiterates the high priority it attaches to financial transparency and effective implementation of the standards on transparency by all, in particular with regard to the beneficial ownership of legal persons and legal arrangements. Improving the transparency of the beneficial ownership of legal persons and legal arrangements is vital to protect the integrity of the international financial system, and to prevent misuse of these entities and arrangements for corruption, tax evasion, terrorist financing and money laundering. The G20 reiterates that it is essential that all countries and jurisdictions fully implement the FATF standards on transparency and beneficial ownership of legal persons and legal arrangements and we express our determination to lead by example in this regard. We particularly stress the importance of countries and jurisdictions improving the availability of beneficial ownership information to, and its international exchange between, competent authorities for the purposes of tackling tax evasion, terrorist financing and money laundering. We ask the FATF and the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes to make initial proposals by our October meeting on ways to improve the implementation of the international standards on transparency, including on the availability of beneficial ownership information, and its international exchange.

9. We reaffirm our resolve to combat decisively and tackle all sources, techniques and channels of terrorist financing. We call on all countries and jurisdictions to join us in these efforts, including through swift and effective implementation of FATF standards, the new Consolidated Strategy on Combating Terrorist Financing, and provisions of the UN Security Council Resolution 2253. We ask the FATF, working with the relevant IOs, to strengthen its work on identifying and tackling loopholes and deficiencies that remain in the financial system and ensure that the FATF standards are effective and comprehensive, and fully implemented. We call on the FATF-style regional bodies to be vigorous partners. We call on the IMF, OECD, FSB, and the World Bank Group to support FATF in addressing the evolving challenges by bringing in their own analysis, within their respective areas of expertise, of the sources, techniques and channels of illicit financial flows.

10. We welcome the progress made by the G20 Green Finance Study Group (GFSG) in identifying challenges to mobilize private capital for green investment. Many of these challenges can be addressed by financial innovations, knowledge sharing and capacity building, risk analysis and international cooperation. We ask the GFSG to develop, for consideration by countries, more specific options for developing green banking, scaling-up the green bond market, supporting the integration of environmental factors by institutional investors, and developing ways for measuring progress of green financial activities, as part of its synthesis report to be delivered by July.

11. Recognizing the importance of the operating entities of the financial mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we welcome the endorsement of the Strategic Plan for the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and call for the Fund's continued efforts to scale up its operations. We reiterate our call for timely implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the commitments made by developed countries and international organizations and announcements made by other countries on climate finance. We affirm the importance of monitoring and transparency of climate finance. We ask the Climate Finance Study Group (CFSG) to finalize this year's work and report back to us at our July Meeting. We reaffirm our commitment to implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

12. We reaffirm our commitment to rationalize and phase-out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, over the medium term, recognizing the need to support the poor. Further, we encourage all G20 countries to consider participation in the voluntary peer review of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption.